TELUS: Guidance Cut and Capital Allocation Reset Signal a Prolonged Turnaround; UW, Cutting PT to C$12

研报英文原文证据摘录

TELUS: Guidance Cut and Capital Allocation Reset Signal a Prolonged Turnaround; UW, Cutting PT to C$12

on strategy reset. As part of its new capital allocation Adj. EBITDA - 26E (C$ mn) 7,528 7,088 -5.8%

strategy, TELUS outlined three priorities: 1) strengthening its financial Adj. EBITDA - 27E (C$ mn) 7,697 7,079 -8.0%

foundation, targeting 3.0x net leverage by year-end 2028 (vs. our 3.3x estimate

Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec) at YE28), supported by the dividend reset and proceeds from non-core asset

sales; 2) honing operational discipline, controlling costs, and reinvesting in the Adj. EPS (C$)

2025A 2026E 2027E

core telecom business; and 3) deploying capital toward profitable growth, Q1 0.26 0.23A 0.18

including investment in wireless, TELUS PureFibre, and AI networks. Q2 0.22 (1.20)A 0.26

Management indicated it will provide further detail on its strategy and cost- Q3 0.24 0.22 0.23

Q4 0.20 0.21 0.22

savings program with third-quarter 2026 results in November. Although the FY 0.92 (0.54) 0.88

timeline remains unclear, CEO Dodig noted “robust” interest in the company’s

health and real-estate assets. Capex is increasing slightly, driven by supply Style Exposure

chain dynamics, inflation, and greater investment in infrastructure; even so,

TELUS remains committed to its multi-year target of 10% CI. TELUS also

plans to deliver minimum compound annual FCF growth of 10% through 2028.

• TTech subscribers: Cut 2026 mobile phone adds to 95k and reduce

Internet adds to 85k. Following weaker 2Q mobile phone net adds of 17k

(versus our +45k), we reduce our 2026 mobile phone net adds to 95k (from

+175k). Updated estimates reflect lower gross adds of 1.62m (9% below our

prior estimate), partially offset by lower churn of 1.23% (down from 1.29%),