The Weekly Worldview: The Message and the Market: Global Economic Briefing | North America

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The Weekly Worldview: The Message and the Market: Global Economic Briefing | North America

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August 3, 2026 04:01 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMGlobal Economic Briefing | North America Seth B Carpenter

Chief Global Economist

The Weekly Worldview: The Seth.Carpenter@morganstanley.comArunima Sinha +1 212 761-0370

Global Economist

Arunima.Sinha@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4125

Message and the Market Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc (DIFC Branch)

Rajeev Sibal

The Fed’s message mattered more than the decision, and Senior Global Economist

Rajeev.Sibal@morganstanley.com +971 4 709-7201

markets are still wrestling with the Fed's reaction function. We

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.

continue to expect no hike from the Fed this year, while BoE Chiwoong Lee

risks remain tied to energy shocks. For the BoJ, we now expect a Principal Global Economist

Chiwoong.Lee@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8920

hike in October instead of December.

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Mayank Phadke, CFA

EconomistMLast week was a reminder that central bank decisions and market reactions do not Mayank.Phadke@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1531

always move in lockstep. While the Fed, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan all face

Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited

a similar challenge in balancing growth against evolving inflation dynamics, the Fed Priyan Mody

generated the most significant market response. Economist

Priyan.Mody@morganstanley.com +91 22 6996-1855

The Fed’s policy decision itself contained few surprises, although three dissents in

favor of a hike showed how close this FOMC is to hiking. The Committee maintained

its stance, and we had expected policymakers to continue to assess the cross

currents of tariffs, oil, and other policy developments on the outlook.