The Month Ahead – 3Q Catalysts

研报英文原文证据摘录

The Month Ahead – 3Q Catalysts

IdeaMbinary a non-event to estimates on the upside with residual risk limited to a narrow

label or CRL.

• Scenario analysis: approval (base case, highly likely given HERIZON-GEA-01) a

modest +5-10% move vs -20%+ (~$200/sh) in the low-probability rejection case

based on the compelling clinical evidence and outcomes observed in HERIZON-

GEA.

KYMR

Ph1 HV data for KT-579 in 2H26

Catalyst Importance: Neutral. Catalyst Surprise: In-line.

• KYMR will be reporting data from its Ph1 SAD/MAD study of KT-579 (oral IRF5

degrader) in HVs in 2H26.

• In addition to safety, the study will evaluate target engagement (IRF5 degradation

in blood) and PD (whole blood ex vivo stimulation assays evaluating

proinflammatory cytokines, type I IFNs, and inflammatory pathway gene

transcripts by TLR 7/8/9 agonists).

• A key objective will be showing robust IRF5 degradation (at least 90%) and a

reduction in PD biomarkers; based on preclinical data, management believes a ~50-

80% reduction in inflammatory biomarkers should translate to clinical activity.

• Assuming positive data, KYMR indicated plans to subsequently initiate a study in

lupus patients.

• Given the early nature of the data and value tied to KT-621 in KYMR shares, we

anticipate shares trading +/- ~5-10% with the KT-579 update.

MRNA

Interim Ph3 data for intismeran autogene (INT) in adjuvant melanoma

Catalyst Importance: High. Catalyst Surprise: In-line.

• MRNA/MRK are developing intismeran autogene (Individualized Neoantigen

Therapy/INT) across a range of tumor types, with first interim Ph3 data (adjuvant

melanoma) expected in 2Q/3Q26 per our estimate

• 5-yr Ph2 data show that intismeran + Keytruda (PD1) reduced the risk of

recurrence or death in adjuvant melanoma by 49% as compared to Keytruda alone.