JPM | Chevron sees UPWARD pressure to product prices in Q3, NO demand destruction, Valero says inventories taking 1.5 years to refill to 5Y averages, Raising 10Y rates forecasts: APAC Commodities Specialist Sales Commentary Energy * Mining * Materials * Renewables

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JPM | Chevron sees UPWARD pressure to product prices in Q3, NO demand destruction, Valero says inventories taking 1.5 years to refill to 5Y averages, Raising 10Y rates forecasts: APAC Commodities Specialist Sales Commentary Energy * Mining * Materials * Renewables

Specialist Sales

APAC Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

03 August 2026

JPM | Chevron sees UPWARD pressure to product prices in Q3,

NO demand destruction, Valero says inventories taking 1.5 years

to refill to 5Y averages, Raising 10Y rates forecasts

Anmol Mehta

+852 2800 8896

anmol.mehta@jpmorgan.com

Good morning, Brent trading -5% to $83/bbl this morning as President Trump calls off Iranian strikes and talks which are set to

resume Monday afternoon (ET) subject to them “rapidly making a DEAL”. Brent is now down 14% over the last 5 days, and

interestingly Asian crude equities have been flat to up on the week with JPM’s Asia Oil Producers basket (JPAAOILP Index)

becoming less sensitive to the increased geopolitical headlines.

What has been a bigger debate here are the refiners which people have been more comfortable owning over crude till recently.

Chevron’s CEO on Friday's call specifically called out refining markets as being much tighter than crude & sees upward

pressure to product prices in Q3 & even beyond, which is a stark contrast to most energy investor expectations who expect

prices to fall 40% from here in H2. CVX also said they see NO evidence of demand destruction. Valero & Exxon’s management

teams largely reaffirmed the same with VLO management stating even if you end the war tomorrow, product inventories wil be

below 5Y averages through all of 2027. Full quotes below.

Earnings on Friday didn’t have any large surprises. World’s largest solar glass player, Xinyi Solar (like all solar players in