July 2026 – Retail Growth Stays Healthy

研报英文原文证据摘录

July 2026 – Retail Growth Stays Healthy

Update

August 3, 2026 12:36 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+MIndia Autos & Shared Mobility | Asia Pacific Binay Singh

Equity Analyst

July 2026 – Retail Growth Stays Binay.Singh@morganstanley.com +91 22 6118-1158

Healthy

Underlying demand stayed healthy and July/August wholesale

India Autos & Shared Mobility

should exceed retail as industry builds inventory ahead of the Asia Pacific

Industry View Attractive

festive season. MSIL,and EIM data is tracking ahead of estimates.

Key Takeaways

PV and 2W retail sales rose 12% and 21% YoY, respectively. CV and Tractor retail

rose 18% and 18% YoY in Jul-26; MHCV was +12% YoY.

EV penetration hit fresh highs in 2Ws at 11.0% (10.4% in Jun) while PV EV eased

to 7.6% (7.7% in Jun). CNG PVs rose to 25.1% (24.6% in Jun).

Wholesale for the month: strong prints from MSIL (+20% MoM), HMI (+47%

MoM, recovering from the Mobis-fire disruption), Tata PV and M&M.

FYTD27 SAAR implies upside risks to estimates for MSIL, EIM and Tata PV–

Exhibit 1

Retail sales trend in July 2026 stayed healthy across PVs, 2Ws, CVs and Tractors:

July 2026 retail 2W sales rose 21% YoY (3MMA +12.5%) and PV retail rose 12% YoY,

with the 3-month PV trend still robust at ~18%. Maruti wholesale rebounded 20%

MoM to ~241k and monthly production hit a record high of 249k as new capacity

came online. Hyundai wholesale recovered sharply (+47% MoM) after the Hyundai

Mobis plant fire that had disrupted June output. MHCV retail improved to +12% YoY,

with demand supported by freight availability, infrastructure and mining activity,

while ILMCV/LCV demand (+23% YoY) continues to be underpinned by e-commerce

and FMCG. Tractor retail strong +18% YoY and SAAR implies that MM can do mid

single digit tractor growth in FY27.