Amadeus: Q2 and the guidance reduction behind us; macro uncertainty still a feature on volume path but pricing provides growth cushion

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Amadeus: Q2 and the guidance reduction behind us; macro uncertainty still a feature on volume path but pricing provides growth cushion

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

03 August 2026

Amadeus

Q2 and the guidance reduction behind us; macro Overweight

uncertainty still a feature on volume path but pricing AMA.MC, AMS SM

provides growth cushion Price (31 Jul 26):€53.84

Price Target (Dec-27):€61.00

Amadeus’ Q2 results (first take) saw revenues in line with consensus (with a European Tech Software & IT

modest EBIT beat) and revenue growth of 2.2% Y/Y CC (versus 7.9% Y/Y CC in Services

Q1), weighed down by volume pressure across Air IT and Air Distribution in Toby Ogg AC

relation to the Middle East conflict. Looking forward, the new 2026 revenue (44-20) 7742-3278

growth guidance for M-HSD% Y/Y CC embeds a ~2% global air traffic growth toby.ogg@jpmorgan.com

assumption (based on IATA’s forecast) and implies broadly stable H2 revenue J.P. Morgan Securities plc

growth of ~MSD% Y/Y CC at the lower end (H1’26 rev growth was 5.1% Y/Y CC) Joseph George

and an acceleration towards ~10% to achieve the higher end. Whilst the macro (44-20) 3493-6990

joe.george@jpmorgan.com

picture remains uncertain, commentary on the first three weeks of July suggested J.P. Morgan Securities plc

air bookings were broadly flat (an improvement versus June) and PBs grew ~1% Priya R Suneja

(an improvement versus June), indicating an improving trend. Despite the (91-22) 6157 4721

potential macro variability that could impact the shape of bookings/PBs in the priya.suneja@jpmchase.com

second half, the pricing dynamics across revenue per booking and revenue per PB J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

are providing an element of cushion and should support confidence in the revenue Giulio Gambardella