EMEA Metals & Mining: Weekly wrap: China politburo signaling more proactive stance but no new stimulus, Carbon steel producers guide better vs Stainless

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EMEA Metals & Mining: Weekly wrap: China politburo signaling more proactive stance but no new stimulus, Carbon steel producers guide better vs Stainless

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

31 July 2026

EMEA Metals & Mining

Weekly wrap: China politburo signaling more proactive

stance but no new stimulus, Carbon steel producers

guide better vs Stainless

We provide updated valuation and commodity price scenario analysis across our European Metals, Mining & Steel

ACEMEA Mining & Steel coverage (link). Dominic O'Kane

(44-20) 7742-6729

The MSCI Europe M&M Index is +2% WoW (for week ended 31st July) in-line vs dominic.j.okane@jpmorgan.com

MSCI Europe while commodities were broadly flat. Most notable is iron ore - J.P. Morgan Securities plc

down 3% WoW to ~$96/t and is down ~8% since June. We attribute this to weak Patrick Jones

China steel demand - June/July China reported steel output has tracked at the (44-20) 7742-5964

patrick.jones@jpmorgan.com

bottom end of the five-year range (link). Chinese steel mill margins remain J.P. Morgan Securities plc

negative and have fallen since May due to lower Chinese steel prices and higher

Anna Antonova, CFA

coking coal costs. On China, JPM Economists note the July 30 Politburo meeting (971) 4428-1766

signaled policy continuity and faster implementation over fresh stimulus, keeping anna.antonova@jpmorgan.com

a "more proactive fiscal policy" and "moderately accommodative monetary J.P. Morgan Securities plc

policy" (link). China’s Q2 GDP print of 4.3% YoY came in lower, however H1’26 Varun Bhattad

GDP 4.7% YoY is tracking within the government’s 4.5-5.0% annual target range. (91-22) 6157-5027

In copper, JPM Commodities Research note the pivotal driver for copper over varun.bhattad@jpmchase.com

J.P. Morgan India Private Limited