EMEA EM Local Bond Issuance 2026 Outlook Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

EMEA EM Local Bond Issuance 2026 Outlook Update

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

31 July 2026

EMEA EM Local Bond Issuance

2026 Outlook Update

We expect higher T-bond supply across the board,

except in Czechia

• In this note, we update local T-bond issuance forecasts and provide colour on Emerging Markets Strategy

AC country-specific issuance developments. Paul Bo-Yang Sheng

• We now forecast 2026 EMEA EM gross local T-bond issuance at $288bn (from (44-20)paulbo-yang.sheng@jpmorgan.com3493 9297

$261bn) and net local T-bond issuance at $163bn (from $136bn).

Michael Harrison AC

• The increases in our local T-bond issuance forecasts are broadly driven by a (44-20) 7134 5720

combination of worsening 2026F fiscal outlooks and lower-than-expected michael.p.harrison@jpmorgan.com

funding contributions from alternative financing sources. Anezka Christovova

• We increase our issuance forecasts in all EMEA EM countries, except Czechia. (44-20)anezka.christovova@jpmorgan.com7742-2630

• Compared to previous forecasts, the largest increases in net local T-bond J.P. Morgan Securities plc

issuance are in Romania (93%), Hungary (51%) and Israel (44%); in Czechia

we decrease our net issuance forecast by 36%.

• The largest increases in gross local T-bond issuance are in Romania (20%),

Türkiye (19%) and Israel (19%); in Czechia, we decrease our gross issuance

forecast by 20%.

• YTD gross EMEA EM local T-bond issuance at $185bn has reached 64% of our

revised full-year forecasts, close to the past 5-year average July-to-date

issuance of 62%.

• In terms of market implications, our lower CZGB issuance forecasts make us

more receptive to bond curve flatteners and/or ASW spread receivers. But

given global curve steepening pressures and a still tricky risk environment, we