Euro area government issuance Aug26 preview

研报英文原文证据摘录

Euro area government issuance Aug26 preview

Matteo Mamprin AC Global Markets Strategy

(44-20) 7134-0329 31 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

matteo.mamprin@jpmorgan.com

last two weeks of the month (Figure 2Sincemid-June,the4-wekaveragerateofEGBisuancehasslowedfrom~10%inlateMay/earlyJuneto6-7%overthepastcoupleofweks.Wenowexpectpacetofurtherdecelerateinlinewithtypicalsumerdynamics). We expect €70bn-75bn of gross issuance in August

(vs. €108bn in July and YTD average of €129bn/month, Figure 3Weexpectpaceofgrosconventionalisuancetobe€70bn-75bninAugustvs.€108bninJuly,withnetconventionalisuancetomodestlydeclinevs.Julylevelsataround€27bninAugustvs.€3bninJuly), around 6% of our 2026

gross conventional issuance forecasts of €1.3tn, of which ~€70bn will come via auctions and

the rest via syndicates, private placements and non-competitive allocations. We estimate net

conventional issuance to modestly decline vs. July, at around €27bn in August vs. €33bn in

July and ~€57bn/m YTD, as the decline in gross supply is modestly larger than the decline

in redemptions.

Figure 2: Since mid-June, the 4-week average rate of EGB issuance has slowed from ~10% in late May/

early June to 6-7% over the past couple of weeks. We now expect pace to further decelerate in line with

typical summer dynamics

4W rolling Euro area conventional issuance pace; % of total annual gross conventional issuance

Source: J.P. Morgan

Figure 3: We expect pace of gross conventional issuance to be €70bn-75bn in August vs. €108bn in July, with net conventional issuance to modestly

decline vs. July levels at around €27bn in August vs. €33bn in July

Monthly Euro area gross and net conventional issuance; JPM estimates for August 2026; €bn

T-bill issuance: As discussed in our Euro area government issuance update, we expect T-bill