EMEA EM Local Market Flows, Positioning and Issuance

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EMEA EM Local Market Flows, Positioning and Issuance

EMEA EM Local Markets Strategy,

Paul Bo-Yang Sheng (AC) (44-20) 3493-9297 J.P.Morgan Securities plc Michael Harrison (AC) (44-20) 7134-5720 J.P.Morgan Securities plc

Anezka Christovova (44-20) 7742-2630 J.P.Morgan Securities plc Shaun Daly (44-20) 7134-0776 J.P.Morgan Securities plc

EMEA EM Local Market Flows, Positioning and Issuance 31-July-2026

Foreign Flows into Local Government Bonds: May saw a second month of inflows (+$4.1bn) following April (+$4.4bn),

but it falls short of fully reversing the large March outflows (-$12.1bn) triggered by the Middle East conflict. Polish local Foreign Flows into Local Currency Government Bonds Summary

bonds saw the biggest inflows in May (+$4.2bn, the largest since records began on Feb-04), bringing YTD inflows to +$8.7bn, now Last 12m cumulative flows based on latest available data, USD billion.

the largest in the region. HGBs follows with +$2.5bn inflows in May (again the largest since records began on Apr-10), taking YTD

inflows to +4.3bn. For CZGBs, despite large outflows in May (-$2.0bn) fully reversing the April inflows (+$2.1bn), YTD cumulative

inflows remains positive at +$3.7bn, ranking third in EMEA EM. High-frequency data show SAGB outflows (-$0.4bn in July) and 14 Poland Hungary Czech Romania 13.4

TURKGB inflows (+$0.9bn in June, +$0.6bn in July). Elsewhere, Israel local bonds saw consecutive outflows (-$0.8bn in April, - 12 Turkiye South Africa Israel Serbia

$0.7bn in May), while Romania saw little movements (-$0.3bn in April).

Issuance: We revise up our local T-bond issuance forecasts in all EMEA EM countries, except Czechia. We now expect 8 6.3

2026 EMEA EM gross local T-bond issuance at $288bn (from $261bn) and net local T-bond issuance at $163bn (from $136bn).