Greater China

研报英文原文证据摘录

Greater China

Feng Zhu (852) 2800 1745 Jiayi Li (852) 2800-5229 Asia Pacific Economic Research J P M O R G A N

feng.zhu@jpmorgan.com jiayi.c.li@jpmorgan.com Greater China

JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Hong Kong Branch 01 August 2026

Tingting Ge (852) 2800-0143 Tongfang Yuan (852) 2800-0085

tingting.ge@jpmorgan.com tongfang.yuan@jpmorgan.com

profit growth in 1H. Electronics manufacturing profit rose consumer confidence and consumption via a positive wealth

96.9%oya ytd on the back of a global AI upcycle, lifting adja- effect. Hong Kong may also benefit indirectly from the ongo-

cent industries’ profits, including ICs manufacturing and non- ing global AI upcycle as a re-export hub, though net trade

ferrous metal. In contrast, rising producer prices have contribution could be volatile due to price effects. The main

squeezed the profits of downstream and consumer-related macro risk is a more hawkish Fed under the linked exchange

industries. rate system, but we expect the near-term impact to be limited

before our US economist’s projected rate hike in December.

Figure 2: China industrial profits and PPI Industrial profit We revised up our 3Q and 4Q GDP growth forecasts to 4.3%

%oya, both scales (NBS) q/q saar and 3.6%, respectively, with full-year growth now at

30 15 4.7% y/y.

20 10

Taiwan: CBC minutes focus on CPI debates

10 5

The 2Q CBC minutes revealed a more hawkish tilt despite an

0 0

unchanged policy stance. While most board members contin-

Industrial profit

-10 (JPM estimate) -5 ued to view inflation as largely supply-driven and partly off- PPI set by government stabilization measures, concerns broad-

-20 -10

ened to services inflation, inflation expectations, oil-price 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

Source: NBS, J.P. Morgan pass-through and negative real rates.