Telkom Indonesia Persero Tbk PT: First Take: Headline 2Q26 results ahead of expectations but await details on underlying trends

研报英文原文证据摘录

Telkom Indonesia Persero Tbk PT: First Take: Headline 2Q26 results ahead of expectations but await details on underlying trends

Ranjan Sharma, CFA AC Asia Pacific Equity Research

(65) 6882-1303 02 August 2026 J P M O R G A N

ranjan.x.sharma@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Telkom Indonesia Persero Tbk PT (Neutral; Price Target: Rp2,800)

Investment Thesis

We believe TLKM has a structural competitive advantage with its integrated operations,

significant lead in mobile broadband, and more comprehensive fixed-line network. Rising

fixed broadband penetration underpins growth potential in fixed-line services. The

competitive environment and competitive plans are likely to weigh on revenues and

earnings in the near term. Our rating is Neutral.

Valuation

Our Jun-27 PT of Rp2,800 is based on a 12x one-year forward P/E, a ~15% discount to

TLKM’s five-year average, given the higher-interest-rate environment and lower ROICs.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Key upside risks include:

• Market-share gains. TLKM could gain market share on the back of its superior

network. Strong gains in market share could drive upside risks to revenue and earnings

forecasts.

• Industry consolidation. Industry consolidation could increase pricing power for

Indonesian telcos and result in earnings and valuation upside for the telcos.

• Acceleration of fixed broadband adoption. Fixed broadband customer growth could

accelerate in Indonesia following the IndiHome restructuring.

• Lower interest rates. A fall in interest rates could result in a lower cost of capital and

a higher valuation.

Key downside risks include:

• Data price competition. An intensification of data price competition could present

downside risks to our growth and margin expectations. We already expect capex to