Moderna Inc (MRNA.O): 2Q26 takeaways: OUS sales offsetting continued US declines; Intismeran remains in focus

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Moderna Inc (MRNA.O): 2Q26 takeaways: OUS sales offsetting continued US declines; Intismeran remains in focus

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02 Aug 2026 09:31:22 ET │ 13 pages

Moderna Inc (MRNA.O)

2Q26 takeaways: OUS sales offsetting continued US declines;

Intismeran remains in focus

CITI'S TAKE

Moderna reported 2Q26 revenues of $145M (-$41M vs. BBG cons) and Neutral / High Risk

diluted EPS of -$1.97/sh (+$0.04/sh). While sales topped expectations,

quality of the beat is debatable given overall Covid vaccine sales declined in Price (31 Jul 26 16:00) US$54.82

the US and South America that were offset by the UK government Target price US$60.00↑

partnership and higher readiness and collaboration revenue. Indeed,

from US$41.00seasonality of respiratory vaccines and policy exposure remain central to

quarterly variability. With the norovirus vaccine’s phase 3 failing to meet Expected share price return 9.4%

statistical criteria for early success at its interim, Merck-partnered Expected dividend yield 0.0%

intismeran’s phase 3 interim for adjuvant melanoma becomes the main

Expected total return 9.4%2H26 catalyst, in our view, with potential readthrough to other checkpoint

responsive solid tumors (lung, renal, bladder). While intismeran’s Market Cap US$21,752M

commercial profile may need final analysis to fully ascertain, additional early

and mid-stage pipeline progress and expansion diversify optionality for the

ongoing oncology pivot. Maintain Neutral / HR; TP now $60 (from $41).

Price Performance

Revenue bridge remains seasonal and policy-sensitive — ~55% of 2H26 revenue (RIC: MRNA.O, BB: MRNA US)

is expected in 3Q26, with US respiratory-vaccine uptake the largest swing factor.

Strategic partnership supply volumes help offset domestic market pressure, while