Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Holcim Ltd. (HOLN.S)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Revenue growth YoY - organic (%) 2.9 5.0 4.2 4.0

Revenue growth YoY - total (%) (3.0) 8.4 9.7 5.6

EBITDA margin (%) 25.4 25.2 25.3 25.9

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Cement / aggregate demand and prices RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

Cost inflation Acceleration of the construction cycle leading

Self-help portfolio optimisation initiatives to volume/price assumptions that differ from Sales / 17,037

Cash flow generation our base case Revenue 16,256 17,088

Investor attitude toward investing in companies Outperformance on delivering Holcim's (SFr, mn) 16,735

with environment impact challenges decarbonisation targets

Ability to deliver decarbonisation targets M&A: Prudent allocation of capital

4,286

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE EBITDA 3,628 4,389GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE (SFr, mn)

Deceleration of construction cycle 4,217

0-10% MEA M&A: poor capital allocation

0-10% Mainland China Energy cost and carbon cost inflation not

3,151 APAC, ex Japan, Mainland offset by higher pricing. EBIT 10-20% 2,867 3,592 China and India Failure to deliver on decarbonisation goals (SFr, mn)

10-20% Latin America 3,100

10-20% UK

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING 40-50% Europe ex UK 3.99

EPSSource: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate Inst. Owners, % Active 65.2% 3.50 4.04

(SFr)

View explanation of regional hierarchies here HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.4x 3.69

HF Sector Net Exposure 2.1%

MS ALPHA MODELS 1.86

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund DPS 1.70 2.02

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be (SFr) 4/5 3 Month 1.87

MOST Horizon inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short