Geopolitics in the Driver‘s Seat but Macro Data Back on the Radar

研报英文原文证据摘录

Geopolitics in the Driver‘s Seat but Macro Data Back on the Radar

IdeaM

Valuation Methodology and Risks

Below you will find a list of our current trade ideas, entry levels, entry dates, rationales,

and risks.

Exhibit 14: Valuation Methodology and Risks

Interest Rate Strategy

Trade Entry Level Entry Date Rationale Risks

Long 30y EU vs swaps 91bp 25/06/2026 We think EU the30y ongoingcheapnessWAMversusdecline,a GDP‑weightedshould supportEGBtheaverage,sector.together with Risks to the tradebondincludesor a resumptionan earlierofsyndicationrisk-off. of the 30y

Short RAGB 2/36 vs NETHER 7/36 14bp 24/4/2026 We think the sovereign is tradingfundamentals.rich to other countries with similar macro Risks to the tradeeasingincludefiscalEUconcerns.flexibility under the EDP

The bulk of France underperformance since 2024 has come from macro Risks to the trade include positive fiscal developments for

Short FRTR 11/36 vs EU 12/36 38bp 31/07/2026 developments and, looking ahead, our forecasts are more pessimistic than France that place the deficit on a better-than-expected

consensus and hence we expect further underperformance vs peers. trajectory.

Long IRISH 10/32 vs short BGB 6/32 -19 10/04/2026 We think Ireland fundamentalsdraglookforattractiveBelgium.while downgrade risks remain a Risks to the trade include the Irish DMO tapping the sector.

2y2y €str/6s Widener 21.8bp 20/02/2026 The tradeand/orgivestighteningus cheapof liquidityexposureconditionsto a combinationin euro areaof increasingmoney markets.risk aversion The main looseningrisk comesoffromregulationspilloversin thefromUS.the recent

Source: Morgan Stanley Research

Exhibit 15: History of recommendations

Definition of terms

Buy/Long: The analyst expects the total or excess return (depending on the nature of the