F3/27第一季度业绩：预计短期股价回调

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M

Update

July 31, 2026 04:09 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

Tokyo Metro (9023) | Japan

Takuya Osaka

Equity Analyst

F3/27 1Q Results: Expect Shortterm Share Correction

Shan Jiang

Research Associate

What’s Changed

Tokyo Metro (9023.T)

From

To

Price Target

¥1,380

¥1,340

Tokyo Metro (9023.T, 9023 JT)

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Railways | Japan

Unchanged

In-line

Modest revision lower

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

No surprises in 1Q results, but we see a strong chance of a shortterm share correction over the risk of a rail income shortfall and

possible lowering of the IFIS consensus.

Key Takeaways

F3/27 1Q OP came in at ¥27.8bn, broadly level with our ¥28bn forecast.

While concerns remain of a rail income shortfall, we think strong non-rail

progress and potential to curb labor costs makes a large FY OP miss avoidable.

F3/27 OP forecasts: Guidance calls for ¥81.4bn, vs. our ¥80.7bn forecast and the

¥81.8bn IFIS consensus. Risk of an IFIS downward revision is a concern.

As expected, no particular corporate actions were announced.

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Up/downside to price target (%)

Shr price, close (Jul 31, 2026)

Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn)

Div yld (03/27e) (%)

Equal-weight

In-Line

¥1,340

(8)

¥1,458

¥846.8

3.0

Fiscal Year Ending

03/26 03/27e 03/28e 03/29e

Revenue, net (¥bn)

Operating profit (¥bn)*

Recurring profit (¥bn)*

Net income (¥bn)*

EPS, basic (¥)*

Prior EPS, basic (¥)*

EPS (¥)**

Prior EPS (¥)**

P/E, basic*

P/BV, basic

ROE (%)*

EV/EBITDA, basic

422.4

89.6

79.2

59.0

101.6

15.9

1.3

8.2

11.0

432.0

80.7

69.5

55.7

95.8

95.7

95.9

95.7

15.2

1.1

7.6

10.8

440.0

81.6

71.2

56.8

97.8

98.3

97.8

98.3

14.9

1.1

7.4

10.2

449.0

81.5

70.6

56.4

97.1

98.2

97.1

98.3

15.0

1.0

7.1

9.8

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

We tweak our forecasts and price target in light of F3/27 1Q results, but stay EW.

…