CRH (CRH.N): A Few Puts & Takes, but On Track for +HSD% EBITDA Growth in ’26

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CRH (CRH.N): A Few Puts & Takes, but On Track for +HSD% EBITDA Growth in ’26

CRH (CRH.N)

31 July 2026 Citi Research

We assign MLM shares a 12-month target price of $737 per share based on a

target multiple of 20.0x NTM EBITDA of ~$2.5B, above MLM’s 5-year average

of 15.6x, which in our view is justified given: 1) exposure to favorable

Aggregates volume and pricing trends; 2) a strong EBITDA margin profile and

operating leverage; 3) low leverage and strong cash flow generation that

support the pursuit of more aggressive M&A and buybacks; and 4) geographic

exposure to strong Southeast and Texas markets, and less geographic

concentration than smaller peers.

Risks

While we are positive on MLM shares, the company is subject to macro and

company-specific risks. Key risks to achieving our target price:

Public Spending Is Uneven – We believe public infrastructure spending should

benefit from government programs, driving demand for Aggregates. However,

if infrastructure projects face funding or other bureaucratic delays,

Aggregates demand could materially underperform our expectations.

Weather Delays – Unfavorable (cold/wet) weather conditions can have a

meaningful impact on construction activity and related Aggregates demand,

causing quarter-to-quarter as well as year-to-year fluctuations in reported

results.

Aggregates Demand is Tied to Economic Activity – Unexpected changes in

related economic activity, consumer confidence, government regulations (i.e.

NESHAP and other environmental protection rules) may cause the shares to

underperform our expectations. In particular, if Aggregates prices do not

maintain their MSD trajectory, gross profit will be adversely impacted.

Lastly, a number of quantitative factors could cause downward deviations