恒隆地产（0101.HK）：2026年下半年同店销售增长5-10%；2027年起新资产贡献利润；新任CEO

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31 Jul 2026 09:04:52 ET │ 18 pages

Hang Lung Props (0101.HK)

5-10% SSSG in 2H26E; Profit from New Assets from 2027E; New CEO

CITI'S TAKE

Earnings growth likely from 2027E; new CEO identified; full cash dividend

resumed — We attribute the weaker 2026 profit to: 1) lower NPI margin on Hangzhou

mall & CN office; 2) reduced finance-cost capitalization (est.30%/20% capitalized

in 2026/27E) despite lower gross interest; 3) unexpected provisions on Wuhan

apartment due to slow sell-through. In 2026/27E, we forecast c.5% earnings growth

given: 1) positive retail reversion on good tenant sales, and ongoing efforts in leasing

& curation of engagement-based retail; and 2) ramp-up of Westlake 66 and Plaza

66 expansion. A strengthened balance sheet and peaking capex have enabled

resumption of a full cash dividend payout, although we see DPS uplift unlikely in the

forecast period. New CEO joining on 7-Sep/will formally assume the role on 1-Oct.

On decent 6.9% yield, maintain Buy. New TP HK$10.30 (from HK$11.20) is set at a

60% discount to NAV and implies a target 5.0% yield.

From luxury to experience-led retail; eyes 5-10% SSSG in 2H26 — CN Retail: HLP

looks for high-single-digit tenant sales growth in 2H (1H: +17%), and Jul tracked inline following volatility in May-Jun. With seven malls achieved record-high numbers,

HLP has demonstrated ability to capture retail trends, refine tenant mix, & broaden

catchment. It has been shifting into “luxury for experience” by diversified F&B and

lifestyle offerings. We expect +ve retail reversion (est. 2-3%) continues in 2H26-27E.

CN Office kept occupancy but rent pressure lasts on over-supply. HK Retail sales

+3%, rental could pick-up by 4Q26E as it backfilling a sizable CWB space.

n

Buy

Price (31 Jul 26 16:10)

HK$7.29

Target price

HK$10.30↓

from HK$11.20

Expected share price return

41.3%

Expected dividend yield

7.1%

Expected total return

48.4%

Market Cap

HK$37,930M

US$4,836M

Price Performance

(RIC: 0101.HK, BB: 101 HK)

Hangzhou mall: seize footfall for now, gradually upgrade — HZ mall is on track to

breakeven by 4Q26E (98% committed occupancy), while office in 2H27E (target 70%

occupancy by then).…