In-line Q2 revenue with modest profit beat; ‘26 guidance trim on slower air traffic evolution though this was largely expected

研报英文原文证据摘录

In-line Q2 revenue with modest profit beat; ‘26 guidance trim on slower air traffic evolution though this was largely expected

Toby Ogg AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7742-3278 31 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

toby.ogg@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Amadeus (Overweight; Price Target: €61.00)

Investment Thesis

Amadeus offers attractive exposure to large travel software markets which are digitalising.

We believe Amadeus is well positioned competitively, with >40% share in both GDS

(global distribution systems) and PSS (passenger services systems for airlines), and likely

continued market share gains in the future. Amadeus is ramping up contracts in its

Hospitality segment which should provide support to revenue growth over the coming

years. Overall, we think Amadeus offers a modest return profile with material upside likely

limited by concerns around disintermediation.

Valuation

We have a Dec-27 PT of €61/share for Amadeus. €61 implies Amadeus trades on ~17x/

~16x/~14x 2026/2027/2028E P/E, which is a discount to the global software sector. Our

analysis suggests that Amadeus deserves to trade at a discount given our view that Amadeus’

longer-term earnings growth is lower than the software sector. Risk of disintermediation

also warrants a discount.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

• Longer-term impacts of COVID-19 could include permanently lower business travel

(due to comfort with video-conferencing, lower budgets, and pressure to reduce carbon

footprint), we could possibly see consolidation amongst European airlines, slower long-

term air traffic growth rates, and pricing renegotiations.

• Cost pressures could weigh on margin expansion potential as cloud costs increase.

• A weaker-than-expected macro-environment or political events could dampen growth