OMV: 2Q net/net broadly in line; Outlook implies 2H chems above pre-conflict but below 2Q

研报英文原文证据摘录

OMV: 2Q net/net broadly in line; Outlook implies 2H chems above pre-conflict but below 2Q

Matthew Lofting, CFA AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7134-6301 31 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

matthew.lofting@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

OMV (Underweight; Price Target: €58.00)

Investment Thesis

Our UW on OMV is centred on: 1) An indifferent Chems outlook as the BGI transaction

heads into expected completion in 1Q26, with the pace of improvement into 2030 arguably

rendered uncertain by a still challenging cycle; 2) A valuation that puts the 2025/26 PE at

a <10% discount to EU Oils, in the context of an historical discount closer to 20%; 3) OMV

has its own Russia option value but this may prove (even) harder for OMV to realise under

ceasefire scenarios than BP/TTE.

Valuation

Our Jun-27 PT is €58. Our price target is set as an equal-weighted blend of SOTP (LT $65/bbl

Brent) and 2027E PER . On multiples, we target a 15% sector discount to an EU mkt 2027

forward median PER of 14.0x which gives a target 8.3x on 2027E EPS at $75/bbl Brent.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Macro risks – The main generic risks, both to the upside and downside, come from crude

oil, natural gas or refining margins significantly differing from our assumptions. Upside risk

to OMV would come from its gearing to higher European refining margins as well as oil

prices.

Romanian fiscal risk – Romania E&P royalty/tax rates have been under review since the

expiry of Petrom’s 10-year stability clause in 2014.

Chemicals still challenging. OMV outlined a still challenged market, particularly in

Europe, with monomers and polyolefin margins no more than stabilising around mid-year

levels, with import flows weighing. The chems outlook still remains lacklustre on capacity