Do Not Disturb: FX and SMDL Provide Room Service, Estimates/PT Held, Stay EW, +10 Qs For Management

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Do Not Disturb: FX and SMDL Provide Room Service, Estimates/PT Held, Stay EW, +10 Qs For Management

Idea

July 31, 2026 07:20 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MAccor SA | Europe Jamie Rollo

Equity Analyst

Do Not Disturb: FX and SMDL Jamie.Rollo@morganstanley.comJames S Harden +44 20 7425-3281

Research Associate

James.Harden@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-0986

Provide Room Service, Ed Young

Ed.Young@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-1761

Estimates/PT Held, Stay EW,

Accor SA (ACCP.PA, AC FP)

Leisure and Hotels | France+10 Qs For Management

Stock Rating Equal-weight

Industry View Attractive

We maintain headline EBITDA estimates, with weaker RevPAR/ Price target €51.00

Shr price, close (Jul 30, 2026) €46.25

NUG offset by favourable FX and stronger SMDL, while cutting 52-Week Range €52.00-37.54

Mkt cap, curr (mn) €12,267

EPS LSD on below-the-line items. Accor offers plenty of Net debt (12/26e) (mn)* €3,646

positives (solid ex-Middle East RevPAR, good cost control, EV (12/26e) (mn)* €14,750

strong hotel signings, an L&L-skewed pipeline, ongoing buybacks * = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

and a potential Ennismore listing) but subpar NUG and a Sales / Revenue 5,642 5,740 6,044 6,378

persistent M&F fee-algorithm shortfall leave it a 'show me' story. (€mn)**

EBITDA (€mn)** 1,201 1,274 1,379 1,498

EBIT (€mn)** 871 952 1,058 1,177

We update our forecasts following Accor’s mixed H1 (see 1st Take and Off the EPS (€)** 1.87 2.28 2.84 3.36

Call): We reduce our near-term RevPAR and net unit growth assumptions for the Prior EPS (€)** - 2.39 2.87 3.40

P/E** 25.8 20.3 16.3 13.8

core Managed & Franchised division, which is offset by favourable FX and a stronger EV/revenue* 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.2