Yapi Kredi: 2Q26 First Take: Earnings in line with JPMe; 1H26 ROTE still supported by 1Q outperformance

研报英文原文证据摘录

Yapi Kredi: 2Q26 First Take: Earnings in line with JPMe; 1H26 ROTE still supported by 1Q outperformance

J P M O R G A N CEEMEA Equity Research

31 July 2026

Yapi Kredi Neutral

YKBNK.IS, YKBNK TI

2Q26 First Take: Earnings in line with JPMe; 1H26 Price (30 Jul 26):TL31.00

ROTE still supported by 1Q outperformance Price Target (Dec-27):TL46.00

Our Take: 2Q26 attributable net profit of TL10.7bn came in broadly in line with CEEMEA Financials

ACJPMe of TL10.8bn (no reported consensus), down 47% QoQ and 5% YoY, with Mehmet Sevim

quarterly ROTE of 15.7%, the softest 2Q print in our Turkish coverage so far (vs (971) 4428-1784

Akbank 20.3% and Garanti 26.3%), while 1H26 ROTE of 23.4% still tracks in line mehmet.sevim@jpmorgan.com

with the high-mid-20s FY guide. The sequential drop was driven by a 24% QoQ J.P. Morgan Securities plc

fall in pre-provision profit on NII pressure and a normalisation in trading income

(-54% QoQ), alongside a step-up in provisions, while costs and fees came in

broadly in line. On margins, swap-adjusted NIM contracted 42bp QoQ to 2.9% on

our calculation, but the bank-only NIM rose 68bp YtD versus a peer average of

52bp per the company, while the CPI linker valuation was raised to 30% from 27%

in 1Q26. Asset quality is where the pressure showed, with total CoR up 48bp QoQ

to 2.24% and 1H26 CoR at 2.0%, above the 150-175bp guide that the bank now

explicitly flags as carrying downside risk, as net NPL inflows sustain through

unsecured consumer and SME loans and the NPL ratio rises to 4.0% (4.3% adjusted

for NPL sales). Capital is the other watch item, with CET1 slipping 34bp QoQ to

9.4%, the thinnest in our coverage, although Tier 1 improved to 12.1% and the

pending Yapı Kredi Portföy strategic partnership offers a further ~70bp uplift. Yapi