Cactus 2Q26 Post Mortem and Model Update: If Only We‘d Followed CEO Bender’s Spoolable Bread Crumbs on the 1Q26 CC

研报英文原文证据摘录

Cactus 2Q26 Post Mortem and Model Update: If Only We‘d Followed CEO Bender’s Spoolable Bread Crumbs on the 1Q26 CC

EBITDA - 26E ($ mn) 437 464 6.2%

demand strength, WHD announced a $40mm investment plan to upgrade capacity Adj. EBITDA - 27E ($ mn) 498 508 2.1%

at its Baytown Spoolables manufacturing facility by 20%. In addition, the

Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)company is contemplating the construction of an international facility to support

the manufacturing of Spoolables in the Middle East, which would take 24 months Adj. EPS ($)

2025A 2026E 2027E

to construct. The company believes the Eastern Hemisphere could represent 40% Q1 0.73 0.70A 0.64

of future Spoolable sales. If approved by WHD’s BoD, this would imply the Q2 0.77 0.93A 0.75

potential doubling of the company’s global Spoolable capacity in 2+ years. We Q3 0.78 0.62 0.75

Q4 0.75 0.61 0.80

think the sharp move in the stock reflects the market’s enthusiasm for the longer- FY 3.03 2.86 2.93

term growth prospects of the stock associated with FlexSteel.

Style Exposure

In aggregate, we model 3Q26 top-line of $433mm (vs. prior JPMe/STe of

$414mm/$410mm) and EBITDA of $116mm (vs. prior JPMe/STe of $116mm/

$113mm). We are assuming Pressure Control margins at the midpoint of the 22-

24% margin band and Spoolable margins similarly at the midpoint of the 39-41%

EBITDA margin guidance range. In Pressure Control, we are modeling margin

compression across 2H26, on the back of lower Cactus International operating

leverage, reduced contribution from higher-margin international aftermarket

services, and lower tariff recovery ($10mm in 2Q26). For 2026 and 2027, we have

increased our full-year Spoolables top-line assumptions by 6.9% and 14.7% to

$435mm and $469mm, respectively. On net, we raise our 2026/2027 EBITDA