TechnipFMC PLC: 2Q26 Post Mortem and Model Update: Subsea Market Shift to Larger Greenfield Projects Shouldn’t Alter Margin Expansion Story

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TechnipFMC PLC: 2Q26 Post Mortem and Model Update: Subsea Market Shift to Larger Greenfield Projects Shouldn’t Alter Margin Expansion Story

117 2,207 4.3%

benefitting from a high mix of direct awards. The company has observed relatively Adj. EBITDA - 27E ($ mn) 2,344 2,438 4.0%

disciplined behavior in a market that has experienced limited capacity additions

and an attractive market structure that features three large global players that are Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

all focused on expanding margins. Given the prospects for these chunky awards to Adj. EPS ($)

tie up significant global Subsea manufacturing capacity, the company does not 2025A 2026E 2027E

Q1 0.33 0.64A 0.93

expect this to drive future margin compression for FTI. Q2 0.68 0.91A 1.18

Q3 0.81 0.95 1.21

The company provided a few bread crumbs on the next potential driver for a Q4 0.64 0.89 0.99

structural shift higher in the company’s Subsea EBITDA margin profile through FY 2.45 3.37 4.31

the industrialization of the iEPCI process. The growth in Subsea margins from Style Exposure

8.5% in 2020 to ~22.0% in 2026 has largely been driven by the industrialization

of the company’s Subsea offering on the seafloor, including its Subsea 2.0

architecture, which has significantly reduced cycle times. The company believes

it is one-third of the way through its journey to industrialize the SURF process, with

the company now focused on optimizing the other two-thirds of a Subsea

installation, including the water column (umbilicals, risers, and flow lines) and the

vessel and installation processes. To accomplish these objectives, CEO Pferdehirt

has created a working group of some of the company’s brightest minds and top

engineers in what appears to be akin to a Manhattan Project for SURF. On the call,