Origin Energy Limited (ORG.AX): Largely in-line JunQ, APLNG cost guide lower; fwd swaps/caps stabilising

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Origin Energy Limited (ORG.AX): Largely in-line JunQ, APLNG cost guide lower; fwd swaps/caps stabilising

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31 Jul 2026 05:07:43 ET │ 16 pages

Origin Energy Limited (ORG.AX)

Largely in-line JunQ, APLNG cost guide lower; fwd swaps/caps

stabilising

CITI'S TAKE

ORG posted a marginally positive JunQ update with a modest APLNG Buy

production beat and hitting slightly above FY26 guidance MP. Positively,

FY27 cost guidance was below both consensus/CitiE by ~6%/~2% while Price (31 Jul 26 16:00) A$10.76

production guidance was broadly in-line with expectations and reflects well Target price A$12.10↓

flagged production natural decline rates. The separation of Octopus and

from A$12.25Kraken is now complete however we understand a full set of separate

accounts to help better ascribe value between the two entities might not be Expected share price return 12.5%

disclosed at the August result as previously expected. We continue to see Expected dividend yield 5.6%

modest downside risk to VA consensus Energy Markets EBITDA with

Expected total return 18.0%warmer weather and lower gas prices likely to weigh. However, with forward

swaps and cap prices having stabilised over the past month (Figure 1 & Market Cap A$18,537M

Figure 2), we see increasing upside risk to Energy Markets earnings from US$13,026M

FY28 onwards.

JunQ result — APLNG production was a 1% beat versus Citi and consensus

expectations with volumes landing slightly above the MP of FY26 guidance. Sales Price Performance

volumes were 1/3% beat versus CitiE/VA driven by higher production. Electricity

(RIC: ORG.AX, BB: ORG AU)sales beat CitiE by approximately 7% and natural gas sales missed by ~7% on softer

demand.

New APLNG production guidance in-line, cost guide lower — New APLNG