Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Nine Entertainment (NEC.AX)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS CATALYST CALENDAR

Drivers Jun 2025 Jun 2026e Jun 2027e Jun 2028e Date Event Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley

Full Year 2026 Nine Entertainment Co Holdings Ltd EarningsFTA TV Market Growth (%) (7.0) (13.5) (10.0) (10.0) 25 Aug 2026

Release

NEC FTA TV Market Share (%) 42.5 42.5 42.5 42.5 06 Nov 2026 Nine Entertainment Co Holdings Ltd Annual Shareholders

Meeting

Stan Subscribers (mn) 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

TV ad market - for every ±100bp in the overall RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Jun 2026e

TV ad market growth rate, the NEC EPS impact Stronger AU economy and ad market booms

is ±3%. NEC ad-linked business makes mkt share gains. Sales / 2,191

Nine Network's TV ad market share - for every Greater value creation in Stan. Revenue 2,102 2,264

±100bp in Nine's own market share, the NEC Revenue synergies from OOH acquisition. (A$, mn) 2,193

EPS impact is ±7%. Digital licence fee revenues grow substantially.

Stan subscriber numbers. Industry consolidation.

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE EBITDA 321 379GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE (A$, mn)

Negative earnings revisions from weaker 356

TV/print/OOH ad market.

Market share loss in TV/digital businesses.

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland 135 100% China and India Cost-out story reversal. Net income 123 146

Poor change in strategic direction. (A$, mn)

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

0.08

View explanation of regional hierarchies here EPS Inst. Owners, % Active 53.6% 0.08 0.09

(A$)

0.08MS ALPHA MODELS Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

2/5 3 Month Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

MOST Horizon Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is