Schaeffler AG (SHAOn.DE): E-mob warning: Less certain earnings deserve lower multiples, but shares down >10% is an over-reaction.

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Schaeffler AG (SHAOn.DE): E-mob warning: Less certain earnings deserve lower multiples, but shares down >10% is an over-reaction.

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31 Jul 2026 06:24:21 ET │ 11 pages

Schaeffler AG (SHA0n.DE)

E-mob warning: Less certain earnings deserve lower multiples, but

shares down >10% is an over-reaction.

CITI'S TAKE Buy / High Risk

Price (30 Jul 26 17:30) €8.09 Schaeffler cuts 2028 targets on top-line from €27bn-€29bn to €24bn-

Target price €13.00 €26bn, with EBIT margins held flat at 6%-8%, an implied 11% cut to mid-

point EBIT and c.8% cut to VA consensus estimates. We would highlight Expected share price return 60.7%

that the FCF guidance remains unchanged for FY28) and would therefore Expected dividend yield 3.7%

argue the reaction is overdone. However, less certain earnings deserve Expected total return 64.4%

lower multiples, and having defended e-mob targets recently the decision Market Cap €7,644M

to cut today is unusual; we think the market would have been more US$8,812M

understanding if this were done at a CMD or FY results, especially since

2026 earnings are progressing well, something likely to be overlooked now

on 2028 BEV volume debates. Clearly with 2028 FCF unchanged it is

possible to argue that the ICE vs BEV hedge within Schaeffler is not Ross MacDonaldAC

broken, but hard questions must be answered on what has changed in the +44-20-7986-7547

order bank in the month to reduce 2028 conviction. ross.macdonald@citi.com

Harald C Hendrikse

Unfortunate timing: While we would lean into share price weakness today we think +44-2075-0858-10

the timing of the guidance revision is highly unfortunate and will likely dominate the harald.hendrikse@citi.com

airwaves over 2Q results which themselves should be solid. With so much unknown Soumava Banerjee