小鹏汽车 (XPEV.N) 预计共识将很快下调3Q销量（至13万辆）及毛利率（环比下降）

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31 Jul 2026 01:33:22 ET │ 11 pages

XPeng (XPEV.N)

Expect consensus to lower 3Q volume (to 130k) & GPM (with QoQ

decline) soon

CITI'S TAKE

2Q earnings preview: We expect 2Q net loss(Non-GAAP) at Rmb1bn with

blended GPM 20% and vehicle GPM around 12.5%. 2Q cash-flow outflows

should remain, implying net interest income decline QoQ. 2Q R&D should

be around Rmb2.9bn and SG&A at around Rmb2.5bn. Government

subsidies and other incomes should also be flattish QoQ as most of the

non-regular income to be received likely around 4Q according to historical

trends. 3Q earnings preview: Our industry checks suggest July shipment

could slightly miss consensus; we expect total delivery at 130k units

followed by persistent negative bottom-line due to: (1)Slightly declining

blended GPM QoQ as non-vehicle revenue mix declines; (2)Similar SG&A

and R&D intensity to remain; (3)Volume growth QoQ to just enough offset

cost-inflation; (4) Export alpha to kick-in in 4Q more significantly than 3Q;

(5)We expect VW development fee to Xpeng at around Rmb2.5-3bn in

FY26 to be booked at 60:40 ratio between 1H:2H.

Buy

Price (30 Jul 26 16:00)

US$12.98

Target price

US$22.50

Expected share price return

73.3%

Expected dividend yield

0.0%

Expected total return

73.3%

Market Cap

US$12,436M

Jeff ChungAC

Key concerns into Aug: We recognize Xpeng may need some time to ramp up L03

production; L03 orders have been very strong. Having said that, the current ramp-up

window suggests 8-10k units of L03 delivery in Aug, followed by maximum 15k units

in Sep. Moreover, L03 (>10% GPM) would likely cannibalize M03 (single digits GPM)

returning to a few thousand units monthly sales level, in our view. We expect 3Q

Xpeng total shipment at around 130k units (below consensus' 150k units) together

with slight QoQ decline in GPM due to revenue mix changes we mentioned above

(i.e. non-vehicle revenue mix decline dilutes all the gain from vehicle mix

improvements).

On the positive side into 4Q: The current GX which carries GPM of around 20% will

improve mix gradually into 2H. Xpeng is set to launch more high-end models (G9L at

5k units per month) in 4Q also with >20% GPM. Moreover 4Q export mix may

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