Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

tility data from the options market as of 30 Risk Reward Themes

Jul 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here Disruption: Positive

Secular Growth: Positive

View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

BULL CASE €95.75 BASE CASE €74.25 BEAR CASE €50.00

Turning on the growth engine Durable growth after subscription Growth deceleration drives de-rating

transition dip

BIM regulation accelerates while expansion Macro weakness leads to slightly more

of Bluebeam into Europe accelerates, which Group cc growth continues to run at mid- subdued organic growth from FY25 and a c.

helps offset Bluebeam US growth teens, as Bluebeam, GoCanvas, and HCSS 14% revenue CAGR over FY26-29 (lower

moderating in outer years. The Bluebeam drive durable strong growth even as overall than our base case 16% CAGR). Longer-term,

subs shift is also highly successful, driving construction demand conditions remain Nemetschek faces higher competition from

durable growth and margin expansion above subdued. We forecast a c. 16% revenue other design software competitors. Our

our base case. We assume a revenue CAGR CAGR in FY26-29, c. 6% FY29-40. Exiting terminal adj. EBIT margin assumption is

of c. 17% over FY26-29 and then c. 7% in the Bluebeam subscription shift helps drive lower than in our base case, at c. 30%. Our

FY29-40. We incorporate a higher terminal near-term margin expansion, while margins total revenue CAGR is c. 5% in FY29-40. We

growth rate of 3%. Our terminal EBIT margin expand longer term as growth fades. Our apply a lower 2.0% terminal growth rate.

assumption is c. 40%.