Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Shell PLC (SHEL.N)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Brent price ($/b) 68.7 84.0 72.5 71.1

Henry Hub $/MMBtu) 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.3

Total production (thousand boe/d) 2,759 2,664 3,072 3,077

Indicative refining margin ($/bbl) 10.1 18.8 7.7 7.3

Capex ($ million) 20,914 24,069 20,160 20,160

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Oil and gas prices, refining and chemical margins RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

Oil and gas production, downstream utilisation Shell's FCF delivery better than expected, due 3.09 Capex, organic FCF, dividend cover and gearing to better macro or lower than expected DPS

(ND/ND+E) capex/opex (US$) 1.48 3.37

Progress towards Energy Transition More visibility on long-term strategy 2.63

Dividend sustainability and growth Higher dividend than guided, without raising

capex 11.20

EPS

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE RISKS TO DOWNSIDE (US$) 5.20 12.41

9.85

0-10% Mainland China Macro environment materially worse than

0-10% UK current/expected

10-20% Europe ex UK Shell's capex for renewables/energy transition Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

10-20% Latin America hinders dividend growth Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

10-20% North America Shell is not competitive in New Energies

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland 20-30% China and India

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING 20-30% MEA

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate Inst. Owners, % Active 80.3%

View explanation of regional hierarchies here HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.7x

HF Sector Net Exposure 4.7%

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short

exposure.