Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Redeia (REDE.MC)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS CATALYST CALENDAR

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e Date Event Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley

Allowed return on electricity 5.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 H2 2026 Spanish national transmission investment plan

transmission (%)

Revenues pre 1998 assets (€, mn) 49 47 49 52 TBD CNMC report regarding fines due to Iberian power blackout

Total Capex (€, mn) 1,628 1,634 1,726 1,429

Transmission Capex (€, mn) 1,552 1,544 1,636 1,339

Net RAB + WIP (€, mn) 11,009 11,154 12,308 13,172

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

RAB and opex allowance RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

Allowed return Acceleration in grid investments 0.96 Inflation Value creative sell-down of non-core assets EPS

Spanish bond yields Lower bond yields and/or rising market (€) 0.89 0.97

0.93 appetite for defensiveness

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE Potential incorporation of an inflation

adjustment into its remuneration framework 0.82

DPS

0.80 0.82 RISKS TO DOWNSIDE (€)

0-10% Latin America 0.81

Delays in grid investments 90-100% Europe ex UK

Hypothetical financial impact from the 2025

Iberian power blackout 1,297 EBITDA

Unregulated business expansions 1,248 1,337Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate (€, mn)

Balance sheet pressure 1,291View explanation of regional hierarchies here

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING 826MS ALPHA MODELS EBIT

798 872

Inst. Owners, % Active 64.1% (€, mn)

5/5 3 Month 815

MOST Horizon HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.5x

HF Sector Net Exposure 1.8% 516

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is Net income

484 524

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund (€, mn)

Quintile exposures held with MSPB. Information may be 507