China Insurance: 1H26 Preview: Dividend surprise could reset the trade; Ping An-H top pick

研报英文原文证据摘录

China Insurance: 1H26 Preview: Dividend surprise could reset the trade; Ping An-H top pick

volatility. We estimate that a 10% move in the J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/

J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

SHCOMP index would imply an average 45% sensitivity to FY26E consensus

net profit. This caution is also evident in the surprisingly slow pace of FY26E

consensus earnings upgrades. For Ping An Group, we forecast 1H26 OPAT

(core earnings) of Rmb84B, up 8% oya.

• Interim dividend surprise could be the catalyst. Except for Ping An, Chinese

insurers introduced interim dividends only commencing from 1H24, and capital

return policies remain underdeveloped. Consensus forecasts imply average

FY26 DPS growth of 4% oya, which we view as conservative versus our 7%

oya forecast. If insurers allocate part of their unrealised investment gains to

1H26 dividends, backed by adequate capital, this should improve market

confidence. We forecast average 1H26 interim dividend growth of 15% oya,

including a 20% oya, or Rmb0.286/share, interim dividend hike for China Life.

• Fundamentals remain supportive. Life sales momentum remains resilient

despite slower 2Q26 activity vs. 1Q26, as life insurers shift towards less interest-

rate-sensitive participating products. Improving agent productivity, stabilising

agent headcount and steady bancassurance support should drive double-digit

NBV growth over the next 12 months. We forecast average 17% oya growth for

1H26E NBV. In non-life, we forecast 94.7% (-0.1%p oya) 1H26E CoR for

PICC P&C, supported by solid auto underwriting and no major claim loss.

• Prefer Ping An-H and China Life-H. H-listed insurers offer better risk-reward

than A-shares, given wider yield support. Ping An-H/A offer the sector’s highest