SES 2Q: Soft print with rising leverage clouds a back-end-loaded FY26 outlook

研报英文原文证据摘录

SES 2Q: Soft print with rising leverage clouds a back-end-loaded FY26 outlook

NSTEIN FLASHMAIL

30 July 2026

Aleksander Peterc

+33 1 57 29 45 25

European Telecom Services aleksander.peterc@bernsteinsg.com

SES

Rating

Outperform

Price Target

SESG.FP 10.00 EUR

SES 2Q: Soft print with rising leverage clouds a back-end-loaded

FY26 outlookMIDCAPS

SES delivered a 2Q26 miss on revenue and adjusted EBITDA against consensus and our (BERN) estimates, driven by Networks/

Mobility phasing, while reiterating unchanged FY26 guidance that is now more back-end loaded. Leverage rose further to 4.4x,

weighing heavily on sentiment.

ADJUSTED EBITDA MET EXPECTATIONS DESPITE A SIZABLE TOP-LINE MISS

Management explicitly flagged 2Q26 performance as "softer than expected due to slippage of some contracts".

2Q26 revenue came in at €755m, -5.2% versus consensus and -5.5% versus BERN, with an adjusted EBITDA of €321m roughly in

line, with a commendable margin beat (42.5%, some 190-250 bps above consensus and our estimate).

Networks (64% of group revenue) missed by a wide margin as Mobility revenue fell -23.7% LFL year-on-year in the quarter (following a

favourable Aviation contract restructuring booked in 1Q26) and Government & Defense slipped -4.1% LFL on contract phasing, while

Fixed Data continued its structural decline of -16.3% LFL against the backdrop of high competitive pressure.

Media was broadly in line with expectations, down -9.0% LFL, reflecting mature-market capacity optimization; the Brazilian customer

bankruptcy impact ended in 1Q26, which explains the softening yoy declines.

LEVERAGE AND CASH FLOW

Adjusted net debt/adjusted EBITDA rose to 4.4x at end-June 2026 from 3.9x at year-end 2025, reflecting both higher net debt

and lower LTM EBITDA.