Japan Megabanks (IB not NII?), Australia Banks (July rebound), Taiwan Financials (AQ risks manageable)

研报英文原文证据摘录

Japan Megabanks (IB not NII?), Australia Banks (July rebound), Taiwan Financials (AQ risks manageable)

(from 2.3%) to

paint a picture of Japan generating growth above potential and inflation above target throughout the forecast period. (Link)

Mizuho (8411 JT) kicked off Japan banks’ earnings season yesterday (post-close). The share price is reacting positively to the

combination of 1Q beat, guide raise, and buyback. (It was not a huge surprise as that was the very thesis that made the stock

crowded long by HFs earlier this month until the bank managed expectations.) As a financials person, I had to highlight that the

1Q beat was mostly driven by their Capital Markets business. (Takahiro has the most detailed quarterly models and NII and Fee

were largely inline. Fig 1: Link) As the BoJ-driven NII growth has been the main reason to own Japan banks, CFO’s commentary

on decreasing NII’s rate sensitivity given wholesale deposit competition is notable. I also have to flag that the acceleration in large

corporate loans resulted in flat loan yields due to repayment of higher-rate loans deteriorated the mix. However, feedback suggests

that the market is likely to see the beat as a beat and look past such details for now as long as the BoJ thesis remains, just as they

looked past MUFG’s CET1 miss last quarter. (Mizuho said retail deposit competition is benign, but SMTG’s deposit yield

increased to 87% deposit beta in 2Q. Link) Bulls including Takahiro like Mizuho’s capital markets business as their key

differentiation, i.e. Greenhill acquisition made Mizuho as a global IB. (Takahiro’s 1Q note: Link, Mizuho deep dive from 2025 is

worth revisiting: Link) Mizuho set the bar for SMFG’s (8316 JT) potential guidance upgrade post-close today as their guide also