Off The Call: AAPL (-7.2%)...: US Hardware / Semiconductors Sector Specialist Commentary Hardware • Semiconductors

研报英文原文证据摘录

Off The Call: AAPL (-7.2%)...: US Hardware / Semiconductors Sector Specialist Commentary Hardware • Semiconductors

Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

30 July 2026

Off The Call: AAPL (-7.2%)...

Joshua Meyers

+1 617 310 0767

joshua.meyers@jpmorgan.com

Not much new from this call. Overall the team has a tough dynamic to navigate with higher component costs (especially

memory), and not much certainty on demand elasticity. If they’re able to raise prices on the iPhone 18, and to navigate the

memory shortage, we could be near trough (and remember, they are always more cautious in guiding for new iPhone quarters); if

not – and we heard from the bears on this - there could be a few more painful quarters ahead. It was telling to see MU up ~3% in

the after-market and SNDK up closer to 5%.

A few things from the call and Q&A that stood out to me:

• iPhone 17 growth still strong (June-quarter record for upgraders). Very strong quarter for Mac (Neo and Pro). iPad has tough

comps.

• ForEx is a 2.5%p YoY growth headwind in the Sept-Q. But memory price was responsible for “more than 100% of the margin

miss” in the June-Q, and that will repeat in the Sept-Q (and ex-tariff return benefit, the Sept-Q GM was a big miss of our

Bars). Supply constraints are expected to widen in the September quarter (notably, limiting iPhone growth, but also Mac and

iPad).

• There was some offset from carry over inventory in June- and even Sept-Q, and also help from cost benefit from some non-

memory components; but that may not persist over time: "if you look beyond September, we see the market pricing for

memory continuing to increase, which could drive an increasing impact on our business." Raising prices was something they

did only reluctantly because of a “100-year” event in memory pricing.