UBS: Increasing estimates on higher revenues: remain OW

研报英文原文证据摘录

UBS: Increasing estimates on higher revenues: remain OW

Kian Abouhossein AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7134-4575 31 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

kian.abouhossein@jpmorgan.com

UBS-CS transaction-related risks are a key source of risk going forward, in our view.

These include but are not limited to:

• Our pro forma P&L forecast has more uncertainty than “normal” modelling for other

banks and hence our EPS forecasts could vary significantly from our current estimates

over time as the integration progresses. There are some moving parts to our TBV and

CET1 calculations related to the transaction.

• Execution risk on the transaction is another key risk, in our view, although much lower

now as integration nears completion. This includes uncertainty around non-core

division P&L and the realisation of cost synergies, amongst several other moving parts.

While in our forecasts, we have made assumptions around asset markdowns,

restructuring charges, cost synergies, etc. the actual impact could vary significantly

from our assumptions.

• CS had several litigations outstanding which could have an impact on the financials of

the transaction with potential risks of further litigation post the transaction, although we

provide for significant litigation-related buffer until 2027E for the combined entity.

• The June Federal Council reports on Bank regulation, capital requirements in

Switzerland creates uncertainty until we get clarity on some of these rules over the next

few years. We have however assumed the worst case in our impacts which may provide

upside.

We highlight below the standalone risks to our rating and PT on UBS i.e. irrespective

of the impact of the CS transaction:

• The performance of capital markets, impacting both the investment banking capital