Capstone Copper: 2Q26 First Take: Solid result with EBITDA ahead of consensus

研报英文原文证据摘录

Capstone Copper: 2Q26 First Take: Solid result with EBITDA ahead of consensus

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

31 July 2026

Capstone Copper Overweight

CSC.AX, CSC AU

2Q26 First Take: Solid result with EBITDA ahead of Price (30 Jul 26):A$12.78

consensus Price Target (Jun-27):A$17.30

Key takeaways: 1) EBITDA of $354m was ~4% above JPMe/consensus $340m,

on higher sales and realised price 2) At the asset level, Mantoverde cathode and

sulphide production was ahead of JPMe, offset partly by lower Pinto Valley output.

Group C1 was 6% ahead of JPMe with most operations above except for

Mantoverde. 3) FY26 production and cost guidance is unchanged at the Group

level at 200–230kt copper and $2.45–$2.75/lb C1 cash costs. The Board has

approved the MV Pyrite Augmentation project ($45m capex) aimed at reducing Australia

acid costs and increasing production (3.5ktpa) from early 2028. Overall, it was a

Head of Australia Metals & Mining

relatively strong EBITDA and production outcome again market fears due to

potential acid constraints. Finally, net debt came in below our forecast at $675m. Lyndon Fagan AC

(61-2) 9003-8648

• Key Positives. EBITDA of $354m came in 4% ahead of company compiled lyndon.fagan@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

consensus/JPMe ~$340m. Mantoverde was stronger than JMPe, with grades

Jonathon Sharp

expected to rise in Q4. Copper sales were 5% ahead whilst realised price was

(61 2) 9003-8312

also stronger at $6.22/lb vs JPMe $6.08/lb. Net debt was 10% better than JPMe jonathon.sharp@jpmorgan.com

• Key Negatives. Group C1 costs came in 6% ahead of JPMe. EPS of $0.13/sh J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

was lower than the company-compiled consensus of $0.15/sh. Devwrat Vegad

(91-22) 6157-3608

• Outlook and projects.