Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

ey Research, Morgan Stanley Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull,

Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 29

Jul 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here

BULL CASE US$20.00 BASE CASE US$15.50 BEAR CASE US$10.00

9.0x Bull Case 2026e EBITDA of US$3.8bn 7.5x Base Case 2026e EBITDA of US$3.6bn 5.5x Bear Case 2026e EBITDA of US$3.4bn

US Infrastructure bill and a recovery in The Path toward the LT North Star. While A steeper downcycle for demand.

residential flows into construction, further operating trends remain mixed, CX navigates Geopolitical and policy risks rise, keeps the

M&A opportunities arise and subsequent the downcycle with cost cutting initiatives, construction cycle underpressure. The

nearshoring waves in Mexico drive debt management & capex reduction. FCF spillover of higher input costs gets out of

growth. Infra bill adds and residential conversion improves and allows CX to offset hand for the cement space and demand

demand raise cement intensity. US imports cyclical operational headwinds to some slows down in the US and LatAm. Rising

add pricing upside for Colombia and Mexico. extent. In Mexico, cement demand is commodity prices, particularly energy, weigh

Nearshoring waves drive Mexico's growth. moderately growing, capped by policy. In the on industry profitability.

Cemex engages in a mid-sized transaction in US, residential headwinds prevail but Europe

aggregates. shows some recovery