AGCO Corp. 2Q Review: Lowering Dec 26 PT to $123

研报英文原文证据摘录

AGCO Corp. 2Q Review: Lowering Dec 26 PT to $123

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

30 July 2026

AGCO Corp. Overweight

AGCO, AGCO US

2Q Review: Lowering Dec 26 PT to $123 Price (29 Jul 26):$116.17

▼Price Target (Dec-26):$123.00

Prior (Dec-26):$130.00

Our latest view: 2027 consensus needs to move a lot lower; JPMe FY27 EPS

$6.70 vs. consensus at $7.92. AGCO’s 2Q miss and cut (see the bullets below for Machinery, Engineering &

Constructiondetails) was driven by weakening market conditions in Western Europe and Brazil,

while North America remained unchanged. Management remains optimistic about Tami Zakaria, CFA AC

demand improving next year after industry volumes are expected to end at 85% of (1-212) 622-9888

tami.zakaria@jpmchase.com

mid-cycle, although we are not ready to put on the bullish hat just yet considering

the multitude of cost pressures farmers are facing across regions while NA farmers Raquel Betesh

(1-212) 622-1313

may or may not get a repeat of the record government payments next year. Hence, raquel.betesh@jpmchase.com

despite underproducing retail demand in NA and Brazil this year, we wait to see

Alec R McGuire

whether revenues in both regions next year can comfortably reach breakeven levels (1-212) 622-2432

of ~$2.2B and ~$1.2B, respectively. We are lowering our estimates, with FY26/27 alec.mcguire@jpmorgan.com

EPS now at $5.66 and $6.70, respectively. Consequently, we are lowering our Dec J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

26 PT to $123 based on ~18x FY1 PE, which is ~1x below the current valuation.

We expect multiples to compress with earnings growth ahead as the ag industry

Key Changes (FYE Dec)comes out of a three-year downturn. We rate AGCO Overweight (vs. Underweight

CNH and Neutral DE). Below are highlights from the earnings conference call.