ENEL: All in line ex Endesa, driving a conservative guidance raise to the top of the initial range. H1 26 review

研报英文原文证据摘录

ENEL: All in line ex Endesa, driving a conservative guidance raise to the top of the initial range. H1 26 review

Javier Garrido AC Europe Equity Research

(34-91) 516-1557 30 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

javier.x.garrido@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

ENEL (Overweight; Price Target: €10.40)

Investment Thesis

We see Enel as one of the global leaders in the implementation of the energy transition, with

an integrated business model that allows it to capture growth opportunities in a wide range

of businesses within the energy sector and with a geographically diversified footprint. Very

strong cash flow generation is an additional differentiating feature of the company, which

provides a stronger basis to aspire to future growth vs its European utilities peers. We rate

the stock Overweight.

Valuation

Our target price is based on an SOTP valuation in which we value the different businesses

based on DCF or on EV/EBITDA multiples. For the valuation of Endesa that we include in

our SOTP, we use our Endesa PT, which results from the average of a DCF-based SOTP and

a DDM. Our valuation assumes a retendering of the Italian hydro concession with no

compensation to Enel post 2029 and the gradual closure of the Spanish nuclear capacity

from 2027 onwards. We also assume the gradual closure of all Enel group coal capacity, with

full closure at the end of 2027.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Downside risks: A meaningful increase in political risks in Italy would put downside

pressure on Enel stock, as it would likely result in a meaningful increase in the discount rate

applied to Italian operations and it could potentially also trigger concerns about incremental

taxes to energy companies and/or political intervention in the sector.