Stellantis: Decent 2Q26 Results; FY26 Guidance Reaffirmed, but North America Margins and Elevated Inventories Remain In-Focus, Moving to Neutral

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Stellantis: Decent 2Q26 Results; FY26 Guidance Reaffirmed, but North America Margins and Elevated Inventories Remain In-Focus, Moving to Neutral

Evan Piascik AC North America Credit Research

(1-212) 834-4432 30 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

evan.piascik@jpmchase.com

company’s turnaround, the scale and complexity of which cannot be overstated. Our

principal concerns are with the recent uptick in inventories, which could lead to higher

incentive spending (deteriorating margins) if levels are persistently elevated (particularly

versus GM and Ford), and the slow progress in adjusted operating margin recovery

(particularly North America) even as new vehicles have started to reach dealers. Ford’s

improving F-Series volume trajectory as the Novelis Oswego, NY aluminum plant ramps

capacity (restarted in June) and persistent competitiveness with Chinese OEMs in Europe

represent additional headwinds to STLA’s market share recovery trajectory, although

STLA’s investment in new products should help it compete in those markets. Meanwhile,

S&P is giving Stellantis through all of 2027 to demonstrate progress on its turnaround,

providing a meaningful amount of flexibility to introduce new products to gain market

share, reduce costs, and improve margins and cash flow in the absence of a major

automotive industry shock. We prefer to move to the sidelines until there is more

demonstrable progress in the turnaround, and we see limited catalysts for near-

term spread compression, although we recognize that existing STLA spreads offer

attractive carry for investors (STLA 5y trades only 10bp tight to the J.P. Morgan BB

index and 100-110bp wide to BBBs). We are moving our issuer rating for Stellantis

Finance US Inc and Stellantis Financial Services US Corp from Overweight to

Neutral as a result.