ASE Technology Holding Co Ltd: Upside in LEAP, mainstream and capex; continuing to catch up to LEAP demand; Stay OW

研报英文原文证据摘录

ASE Technology Holding Co Ltd: Upside in LEAP, mainstream and capex; continuing to catch up to LEAP demand; Stay OW

ed

in 2027 (implying $7+bn). We believe the primary growth driver for 2027 is Subham Singhania

Full-Process CoWoS, starting with AMD Venice later this year and ramping at (91-22) 6157-3801

a much larger scale in 2027. Given the extremely tight supply/demand, we subham.singhania@jpmorgan.com

think ASE's Full-Process capabilities could extend to other AI CPU programs J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

(e.g., NVDA Vera) or even AI accelerators (e.g., AWS Trainium) depending on

the execution for AMD projects—yield performance is progressing well—and

Key Changes (FYE Dec)

additional capacity coming online. In addition, strong advanced testing

Prev Cur Δ

demand (JPMe ~160%/80% YoY in 2026/27) will also provide further support, Adj. EPS - 26E (NT$) 18.56 20.43 10.1%

with outsourced chip probing momentum remaining solid and potential Adj. EPS - 27E (NT$) 28.71 31.83 10.9%

breakthroughs in final test business. We raise our LEAP expectations to ~$4bn/

$8bn/$12bn in 2026/27/28, with Full-Process to contribute mid-to-high 20s in Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

the 2027/28 timeframe (up from low teens in 2026). Adj. EPS (NT$)

2025A 2026E 2027E

• Mainstream demand stronger, helped by better utilization and favorable Q1 1.49 3.35A 5.76

pricing: Management noted that assembly has caught up with testing Q2 1.88 4.92A 7.28

momentum, partially aided by mainstream packaging (including wire Q3 2.63 5.52 8.90

Q4 3.49 6.64 9.90

bonding) despite lackluster consumer demand dragged by memory price hikes. FY 9.49 20.43 31.83

We attribute the strength to: 1) robust AI‑peripheral demand (power

management, connectivity, storage); and 2) improved pricing power from high Style Exposure