Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

tanley Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull,

Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 30 Disruption: Negative

Jul 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either Secular Growth: Negative

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

BULL CASE €160.00 BASE CASE €117.00 BEAR CASE €64.00

Capgemini as an AI enabler Steady recovery with limited upside AI significantly compresses pricing

Market pricing pressures ease and the IT Capgemini continues to regain growth AI pressures materialise in 2026, and

Services industry navigates AI headwinds ground, but at a slow rate. We forecast c. macroeconomic challenges worsen. FY26

successfully. We assume the company 3% org. growth in FY26, but see no organic growth remains low, with outer year

delivers c. 5% revenue CAGR FY26-29e and significant reacceleration from here as AI growth decelerating quickly thereafter to

c. 3% FY30-36e. Margins are slightly above pricing pressure caps outer-year growth. Our close to 0%. Slower top line and a need to

our base case, reaching c. 14% in the FY26-29 revenue CAGR is c. 3%, FY30-36 is invest behind GenAI drives adj. EBIT margins

terminal state. We apply c. 2.5% terminal c. 2.5%. We model adj. EBIT margins (ex-SBC) lower over the medium term,

growth. Our bull case implies c. 12x FY27e remaining around 14% out to FY29, fading towards 13% by FY29e and towards c. 10.5%

adj. P/E (ex-SBC). slightly towards c. 13% in terminal state. Our in terminal state. We model a c. 1.5% FY26-

base case implies c. 9x FY27e adj.