Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

tock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research, Morgan Stanley Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull,

Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 29

Jul 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here

BULL CASE €34.50 BASE CASE €26.50 BEAR CASE €18.50

Secular trends driving stronger growth Attractive set-up for retail re-risking Slower retail re-engagement

Our bull case assumes higher revenue and Our base case assumes ~7% revenue CAGR Our bear case assumes a modest ~5% CAGR

an improving adj. CIR of ~27%, driving a over FY25-35, CIR steady below ~30%, and a in revenues in FY25-35, supported by

~11% CAGR in gross operating profit over ~6% CAGR in operating costs. Our revenue brokerage revenues at 8% CAGR and a ~7%

FY25-35. On revenues, we assume strong forecasts include an ~10% CAGR in investing CAGR in Investing fees, with stable NII. We

growth in investing fees, with a ~15% CAGR in FY25-35, benefitting from a ~10% CAGR in model a 6% CAGR in operating costs to

in FY25-35, and a ~7% CAGR in brokerage AuM, and a positive fee margin effect. We deteriorating adj. CIR to above 30% (vs our

fees driven by increasing interest in financial forecast a ~7% CAGR in brokerage revenues base case below 30%). On revenues, we

markets and retail re-risking. We model in FY25-35 and 6% in NII. We use a 10-year assume subdued risk appetite and softer

more resilient net financial income.