Tata Steel: First Take: Largely in-line print; all eyes on Europe profitability going forward

研报英文原文证据摘录

Tata Steel: First Take: Largely in-line print; all eyes on Europe profitability going forward

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

30 July 2026

Tata Steel Neutral

TISC.NS, TATA IN

First Take: Largely in-line print; all eyes on Europe Price (30 Jul 26):Rs186.92

profitability going forward Price Target (Sep-27):Rs214.00

Our First Take: Tata Steel’s 1QFY27 consolidated EBITDA grew 25% YoY, to

Rs92.6bn, and came in broadly in line with JPMe/BBG consensus. The India

business posted a slight beat (EBITDA +3% vs. JPMe), led by better ASPs.

However, the Europe EBITDA/t loss of $17/t was slightly softer than JPMe (-

$15.6/t). We await clarity on the Europe EBITDA trajectory going forward, as

management highlighted: (1) the Netherlands’ Direct Sheet Plant (which is

temporarily closed) is undergoing trial runs ahead of the restart of full operations, India Materials & Logistics

ACso there could be a negative impact in 2Q, as well; and (2) the UK has incorporated Vibhav Zutshi, CFA

tighter safeguard quotas, but there were deviations from the initial proposal, with (91-22) 6157-3585

implications for product categories. Tata Steel’s net debt increased a slight 5% vibhav.zutshi@jpmorgan.com

QoQ, but net debt/EBITDA remained flat, at ~2.3x. Tata Steel has also approved J.P.Tower,MorganSantacruz(E),India PrivateMumbaiLimited,- 400098,J.P. MorganSEBI

the NINL capacity expansion of 4.8MT at an estimated capex of ~Rs340bn (capital Registration: INH000001873, (91-22) 6157-3000.

intensity of ~$735/t). On tomorrow’s call, we believe investors will keenly

monitor: (1) the timeline for UK EBITDA breakeven (average UK HRC price at

a $100/t premium over EU HRC last quarter, but EU/UK net steel imports likely

moved up QoQ, and news reports suggest that India-UK FTA could drive increased