Brazil: Concession trend signals loss of momentum, but policy measures may drive near-term credit reacceleration

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Brazil: Concession trend signals loss of momentum, but policy measures may drive near-term credit reacceleration

AmericaBanco J.P. Morgan S.A. Latin Economic Research J P M O R G A N 30 July 2026Mirella Sampaio

(55-11) 4950-3289

mirella.sampaio@jpmorgan.com

terms and subsidized rates. The measure is more fiscally constrained than prior proposals, but

should provide relief for stressed farmers and support the agribusiness portfolio. The

expectation is that normalization of credit flows in the sector will follow, as the uncertainty

around renegotiation has contributed to elevated NPLs and delayed lending in recent months.

Additional resources (R$1.33bn) were announced today to address El Niño effects, targeting

food security and agricultural resilience.

Despite signs of fatigue in the quasi-fiscal stimulus strategy from a growth perspective, the

volume and diversity of credit lines suggest that growth effects will persist through 2H26, as

highlighted in our mid-year outlook. However, the impact is likely to fade in 2027, given

incentives to reduce stimulus and the electoral “defeso” period, which limits new program

launches ahead of the October elections. Legislative activity is expected to slow, with our risk

balance reflecting mainly known programs. New announcements could reinforce the upside

asymmetry in the short term, but the maintenance of high interest rates and signs of activity

deceleration point to a more pronounced and persistent credit slowdown in 2027.

Table 1: New loans growth (selected groups)

% m/m, sa, CPI deflated

Jan 26 Feb 26 Mar 26 Apr 26 May 26 Jun 26

Total 2.2 -2.0 1.3 -0.3 0.1 0.4

Households 0.0 -1.2 3.4 -1.9 0.2 -1.0

Overdraft 0.3 0.0 -0.5 -2.0 7.8 -1.4

Personal credit 5.5 -1.1 4.9 -5.5 -5.6 -1.9

Vehicle acquisition -0.7 0.7 3.4 -1.0 -2.0 -1.4