J.P. Morgan Municipal Morning Intelligence

研报英文原文证据摘录

J.P. Morgan Municipal Morning Intelligence

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

30 July 2026

J.P. Morgan Municipal Morning

Intelligence

Post FOMC UST results do not bode well for longer-

dated municipals. Inflows have decelerated, but will pick

up with Aug. reinvestment. 30yr UST and Corp yields at

19yr/17yr high.

Tax-Exempt Market Wrap Securitized Products & Public

Finance Municipals Strategy

– The HG muni scale was bumped by 1-2bps in 1yr, 8-13yr and 20yr+ spots on the AC Peter DeGroot

curve, based largely off of pre-FOMC meeting activity on lower trading volume,

(1-212) 834-7293

significantly outperforming Treasuries, with the 30-year trading off as much as peter.degroot@jpmorgan.com

12bps post FOMC meeting. The 30yr UST reached 5.20%, the highest level since Ye Tian

June 2007, with another 2bps of cheapening this morning. Note that about 90% of (1-212) 834-3051

yesterday’s trading was done prior to the UST sell-off (3pm). As such, we ye.tian@jpmorgan.com

anticipate some corrections in munis today. Roisin A Gargan

(1-212) 834-7010

– Yesterday’s FOMC voted 9-3 to leave rates on hold, with the statement almost roisin.gargan@jpmchase.com

unchanged relative to the June meeting. Fed chair Warsh left open the possibility of J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

changing the Fed’s inflation measurement target before returning to 2%

inflation,which raises questions about the new chair’s ability to lower inflation.

These developments reinforce our economists’ view that the Fed is moving towards

hiking and that the risks of an early move have increased, and they now forecast an

earlier initial Fed hike to come in December 2026 (link).

– Naturally, the tact by the Fed and the broader rates market reaction, do not bode well