2Q‘26 First Take: Beating expectations and raising guidance

研报英文原文证据摘录

2Q‘26 First Take: Beating expectations and raising guidance

Jose M Asumendi AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7742-5315 30 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

jose.m.asumendi@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Ferrari NV (Overweight; Price Target: €380.00)

Investment Thesis

We have a great deal of confidence in management’s ability to execute on its long-term plan

given ample evidence that demand currently far outstrips supply. Higher profits from

increased sports car sales form one of the key pillars of increased earnings in our model.

While there is likely to be a level of deliveries beyond which expansion would harm

exclusivity (and therefore pricing and profits), we estimate it lies significantly in excess of

the company’s current ~14K per annum amount (perhaps as many as 20K or 25K vehicles

over the long term), and, at any rate, we see plentiful opportunity to drive earnings from

continued price and mix gains, including personalisation. We do not view emissions

regulations as a significant inhibiting factor over any reasonably foreseeable timeframe and

are increasingly confident the company will be highly relevant in battery electric sports cars.

We also estimate the company benefits from CEO Benedetto Vigna’s leadership style,

which has challenged the company to capitalise on collaboration to increase the speed at

which it embraces innovation. An imminent Supercar launch may also have the potential

to turbocharge profits.

Valuation

We value Ferrari on an EV/Ebitda multiple based on historical multiples correlated to Ebitda

margin over the past eight years at an average of ~23x EV Ebitda, generating average 36%

margins. At PT we see the stock trading at 25x EV/Ebitda delivering in FY26 39% Ebitda

margins.

Risks to Rating and Price Target