International Paper: Q2‘26 first take: Beat Q2, in line Q3 and maintain FY‘26 guidance

研报英文原文证据摘录

International Paper: Q2‘26 first take: Beat Q2, in line Q3 and maintain FY‘26 guidance

Detlef Winckelmann AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 3493-5190 30 July 2026 C A Z E N O V E

detlef.winckelmann@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

International Paper (Overweight; Price Target: $61.00)

Investment Thesis

Similar to our view on International Paper’s US corrugated packaging peers, we are positive

on the medium-term outlook for corrugated pricing as a structural decline in capacity creates

a tighter for longer market environment. Despite this, IP has under-performed consensus

expectations when it comes to delivering on its profitability improvement guidance, which

has led to a number of earnings estimate cuts. In our view, consensus and especially buy-side

expectations have been set lower and at more realistic levels. While it's tough to rule out any

further cuts, we see significant upside (43%) to the current share price and, even if we

wanted to assume that IP fails to execute on any cost-outs or further 80-20 improvements,

we would still see ~34% upside versus current levels.

Valuation

We set our Dec-27 target prices of $61.00/share and GBp 4,600/share for International Paper

using an equal weighting of a one-year forward EV/EBITDA multiple valuation (7.6x) and

a one-year forward free cash flow yield multiple valuation (6.5%). Our multiples take into

account the historic trading levels and adjust for our view on whether the segment/division

is improving/getting worse versus history.

FCF yield valuation EV/EBITDA valuation

$m $m

JPMe LTM 31 Dec-28 Multiple Valuation

Net income (LTM) 2,267 Segment LTM 2028 10-year avg Premium/ Applied Enterprise

EBITDA multiple discount multiple Value

Depreciation and amortization (LTM) 1,860