Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– KONAMI- KONAMIGROUP (9766.T)GROUP (9766.T)

We see World Cup momentum, trading card strength supporting earnings growth

PRICE TARGET ¥27,000 OVERWEIGHT THESIS

Derived using discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. ▪We expect eFootball to show higher

Key assumptions: 5.8% WACC (equity risk premium 6%, risk-free rate 1.0%, beta 0.8 on an all grossings fueled by the upcoming 2026 FIFA

equity capital structure) and terminal growth rate of 2%. World Cup, serving as a key earnings driver

heading into fiscal year 2027 ¥25,317 ▪The company boasts a well diversifiedConsensus Price Target Distribution ¥19,000.00 ¥30,000.00 game portfolio of mobile sport games, MS PT

playing cards, and console titles supportedSource: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

by multiple proprietary IP library, which we

see sustaining earnings growth

▪Good track record on execution and

RISK REWARD CHART sustained margin expansion justifies a

valuation premium versus regional and

global peers, in our view.

JPY

¥31,000¥31,000(+41.94%)¥31,000(+41.94%)(+41.94%)

Consensus Rating Distribution

89% Overweight

¥27,000¥27,000(+23.63%)¥27,000(+23.63%)(+23.63%) 11% Equal-weight

¥21,840¥21,840¥21,840 0% Underweight

MS Rating

16000 Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

¥17,000¥17,000(-22.16%)¥17,000(-22.16%)(-22.16%)

8000 Risk Reward Themes

Pricing Power: Positive

Secular Growth: Positive

JUL '25 JAN '26 JUL '26 JUL '27 View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

BULL CASE ¥31,000 BASE CASE ¥27,000 BEAR CASE ¥17,000

36x bull case F3/27 EPS 32x base case F3/27 EPS 21x bear case F3/27 EPS